Estimation of the risk level of the activity at the baking industry enterprises in long-term periodShaleny V.A.
Key words: estimation of risks; management risks; industry; risk factor; factor-symptom; risk level.
The article analyzes the main modern methodological approaches to assessing the level of long-term risk. It has been established that the evaluation of long-term risks, which in most cases means the definition of the threat of bankruptcy, is performed on the basis of comparison of the calculated indicator with the corresponding normative values. Such models are rigid and do not take into account the current state of the external environment, the characteristics of the industry (market), the level of business activity, the effect of systematic risks, etc. This requires carrying out the procedure for adapting of these models or building new, more flexible ones, the risk assessment will be based on the analysis of the competitive environment of the valuation object. The author suggests his own approach to the assessment of the level of long- term risk on the basis of the analysis of the system of indicators (factor-symptoms) of a group of enterprises with subsequent appropriate ranking and grouping them according to the level of activity riskness. Scaling of the level of long-term risk is advisable to carry out with the help of reverse logistic regression, the feature of which is the increased ability to recognize the values that are inside the aggregate. Approbation of the methodology was carried out on the basis of the financial records data of nineteen enterprises of the baking industry: the level of their long- term risk was assessed, the corresponding ranking of enterprises was carried out and the main directions of their development were determined in the context of solving the problem of minimizing the level of activity risk.
The correlation analysis of the long-term risk factor symptoms made it possible to identify two basic strategies for managing the level of long-term risk and enterprise behavior in a competitive environment, namely, the orientation toward the maximum amount of profit, which for most enterprises can be achieved only through the implementation of the production program with a significant share of the mass products with a low level of profitability, or orientation to the maximum profitability of sales, which is possible due to the production of products with a relatively high level of profitability, the demand for which is much less than for the mass one.
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